Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EDT WED APR 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF
GAINESVILLE FLORIDA TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ORLANDO
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL...ONGOING STORMS OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE BIG BEND AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 40-50+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...MEAD/THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 100 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 011725Z - 020100Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15N GNV/GAINESVILLE FL/ - 30WSW ORL/ORLANDO FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /44ENE CTY - 25WSW ORL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 29888093 28378047 28378309 29888361
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 100 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 100
VALID 012140Z - 012240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 358
..GUYER..04/01/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 100
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-017-035-041-053-069-075-083-095-107-109-117-119-127-
012240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA CITRUS FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HERNANDO LAKE
LEVY MARION ORANGE
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE
SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
AMZ454-550-GMZ850-012240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 100
VALID 012050Z - 012140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 358
..THOMPSON..04/01/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 100
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-017-035-041-053-069-075-083-095-107-109-117-119-127-
012140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA CITRUS FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HERNANDO LAKE
LEVY MARION ORANGE
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE
SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
AMZ454-550-GMZ850-012140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 100
VALID 011910Z - 012040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THOMPSON..04/01/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 100
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-017-035-041-053-069-075-083-095-107-109-117-119-127-
012040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA CITRUS FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HERNANDO LAKE
LEVY MARION ORANGE
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE
SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
AMZ454-550-GMZ850-012040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.