Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 71
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 920 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 70...
DISCUSSION...NE TX/SW AR SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN. STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN
DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN LA BY LATE MORNING AS SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED
LOW-LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT /ALONG 30+ KT WSWLY 1 KM JET/ FURTHER
DESTABILIZE REGION. WITH TIME...PERHAPS AROUND NOON CDT...EXPECT
THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL HAVE OCCURRED FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A REPLACEMENT WATCH COVERING AREAS
ALONG DIFFUSE W-E WARM FRONT EWD INTO CNTRL MS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 71 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 311420Z - 010000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
5WNW GGG/LONGVIEW TX/ - 55NNE ESF/ALEXANDRIA LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /3WSW GGG - 24S MLU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
LAT...LON 33419480 33159194 31129194 31389480
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 71 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 71
VALID 311645Z - 311740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GGG TO
35 S SHV TO 40 SW LLQ.
..SPC..03/31/13
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 71
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-021-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-127-311740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WINN
$$
TXC005-403-405-311740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.